Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  20.3  20.0  18.6  21.2  23.2  30.2  39.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  59.0  57.0  61.0  83.0  43.0  85.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7 106.6 110.5 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0 -13.0  -7.0  21.0   2.0  25.0  50.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  15.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       12.1%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%        4.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        3.8%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.6%       10.4%       14.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons