Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.7  19.2  19.8  23.7  23.9  39.3  39.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  57.0  30.0  73.0  90.0  98.0  30.0  30.0  N  N  U  N  F  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6 117.4 130.1 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -5.0  33.0  22.0   2.0  66.0  54.0   1.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  61.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0  -1.0   7.0  10.0   5.0   2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.5%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        4.0%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        2.8%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%        6.9%       10.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons