Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  17.7  18.5  20.6  28.7  29.2  45.8  54.6  N  F  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  30.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  36.0  26.0   4.0  32.0  81.0  24.0  12.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0   4.0   7.0   4.0   7.0 -12.0 -42.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.8%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       11.2%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        7.4%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        3.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       19.7%        8.1%       13.9%