Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220301 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  12.0  13.4  18.7  23.6  42.7  50.8  50.2  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  90.0  94.0  90.0  97.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  33.0  29.0  14.0  62.0  45.0  27.0 -10.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  58.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   6.0   2.0   6.0 -19.0 -49.0 -50.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        5.1%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.6%       38.3%       27.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       20.7%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       18.9%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       18.9%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       23.5%       50.1%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.9%       13.5%
 55kt / 48h       27.2%       20.4%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.3%       14.5%       19.4%
 65kt / 72h       29.9%       19.2%       24.5%