Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220301 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  15.8  15.5  15.9  32.7  42.1  45.1  32.6  F  F  F  F  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  82.0  56.0  93.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  26.0  18.0  49.0  59.0   2.0  28.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0 -24.0 -44.0 -13.0  U  U  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        5.6%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       41.6%       29.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       23.7%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       21.7%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       21.7%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       44.7%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.5%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.2%       16.3%       17.2%
 70kt / 48h       11.8%       11.1%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h       26.5%       19.8%       23.2%