Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220301 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.9  25.3  31.7  47.1  59.5  44.1  36.4  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  79.0  98.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  24.0  65.0  90.0  24.0  42.0  -1.0  25.0  U  U  N  F  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  58.0  49.0  43.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   8.0  13.0  18.0 -13.0 -52.0 -33.0 -48.0  U  U  U VU VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       35.0%       26.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       18.1%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       16.2%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       16.2%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       25.3%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        5.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        3.1%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h       28.3%       11.5%       19.9%