Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220302 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  22.3  24.6  32.8  44.8  47.6  29.1  33.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  98.0  98.0  95.6  90.9  86.1  81.4  76.6  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  76.0  79.0  60.0   3.0   9.0  -3.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0  13.0   2.0 -25.0 -51.0  -7.0 -51.0  N  N  U  N VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        6.1%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       35.6%       27.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       18.1%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       16.3%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       16.3%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       26.7%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        7.8%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%        5.1%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       32.9%       18.4%       25.6%