Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  33.2  38.9  42.2  36.1  34.7  26.5  29.7  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.2  80.8 104.8 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  39.0   5.0  47.0   6.0  33.0  17.0  25.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  U  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0 -12.0 -21.0 -22.0 -50.0 -27.0 -56.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons