Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  40.3  48.5  43.7  30.2  42.1  36.5  39.9  U  U VU VU  N VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.2 115.7 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   5.0   4.0 -20.0  19.0   1.0  -9.0 -12.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  45.0  40.0  34.0  33.0  36.0  35.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0 -14.0 -29.0  -6.0 -51.0 -38.0 -54.0  N  N VF VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons