Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220303 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.00    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.8  45.3  36.4  28.1  23.3  24.2  18.1  19.5 VU VU  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  91.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  N
 Potential [kt]         88.6  91.5  94.6  96.1  93.0  87.2 125.7 140.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -17.0   5.0  -6.0   4.0  -5.0  15.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  39.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  44.0  36.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -26.0 -13.0  -8.0 -32.0 -15.0 -14.0 -12.0 VF VF VF  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.7%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons