Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172022 220302 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.80    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  34.6  31.3  28.2  26.0  25.2  26.3  29.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   2.0  13.0  12.0  31.0   5.0  -7.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  52.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.3%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       11.4%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        5.5%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        8.1%        9.1%