Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172022 220302 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  28.5  27.4  27.2  20.7  25.6  25.0  34.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  38.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  13.0  12.0  20.0  14.0 -24.0 -20.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  51.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.9%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.0%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h       15.3%        4.9%       10.1%