Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172022 220302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.00    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  34.3  34.5  34.8  33.5  29.9  23.1  17.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  19.0  -1.0  14.0  14.0   5.0  -4.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  63.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.7%        3.9%        7.8%