Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172022 220303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.90    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  39.1  36.4  36.5  38.0  33.4  45.5  42.8 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  22.0  23.0  15.0  -9.0 -13.0   9.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%