Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182022 220303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.20    175.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  37.0  34.7  34.1  38.2  45.4  49.3  48.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  87.7  89.4  87.7  82.7  78.0  62.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  13.0  20.0  20.0  35.0  50.0  -2.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0   1.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   5.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons