Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192022 220316 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     37.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  13.9  16.8  18.8  19.9  35.8  25.3  18.8  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  46.0  47.0  50.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.5 108.0  99.3  93.0  99.3 113.5 104.4 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  36.0  23.0  32.0  38.0  27.0  23.0  30.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  77.0  77.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0 -14.0 -38.0 -25.0 -17.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        7.1%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        2.4%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        7.5%        6.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons