Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220320 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  14.8  21.7  28.8  34.6  35.6  37.8  28.5  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  37.0  31.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  47.0  84.0  91.0  39.0  29.0 -13.0 -18.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -4.0 -11.0  -3.0  -9.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        9.3%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       47.7%       36.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       29.4%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       28.6%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       28.1%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       40.7%       26.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.5%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%       16.4%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       11.1%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       16.0%       11.6%