Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220320 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  22.2  26.6  32.1  35.8  38.2  36.0  35.6  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  38.0  32.0  25.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  84.0  91.0  39.0  62.0  15.0  -4.0  18.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0 -12.0 -16.0 -12.0 -16.0 -14.0 -17.0  F  F  F VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%       10.8%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       45.3%       34.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       29.3%       20.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       29.3%       19.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       27.7%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       33.3%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.7%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%       12.7%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        8.1%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%       11.2%        7.0%