Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220321 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  30.0  27.6  27.3  32.0  29.6  34.7  32.8  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  41.0  35.0  32.0  25.0  21.0  18.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  82.0  93.0  65.0  46.0  65.0  79.0 133.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  64.0  59.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.2%       13.6%       19.9%
 25kt / 24h       49.1%       50.8%       50.0%
 30kt / 24h       31.9%       38.6%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       28.8%       38.6%       33.7%
 40kt / 24h       16.9%       37.8%       27.3%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       30.0%       25.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.7%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%       13.4%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.5%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        6.8%        5.7%