Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220321 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  39.2  36.6  37.7  46.2  45.6  50.5  61.2 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  37.0  31.0  25.0  18.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  49.0  50.0  31.0  26.0  56.0  83.0 105.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  53.0  58.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -22.0 -17.0 -10.0  -8.0   3.0  11.0  12.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.8%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       10.6%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.0%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.0%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        2.4%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%