Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220322 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  37.7  35.1  34.2  33.8  37.7  34.4  48.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  29.0  23.0  20.0  16.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  60.7  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  51.0  25.0  54.0  74.0  73.0  89.0  73.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -22.0 -22.0 -16.0 -17.0  -5.0   0.0  29.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.9%        9.0%       25.5%
 25kt / 24h       24.3%       21.1%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       15.3%       18.6%
 35kt / 24h       21.8%       15.3%       18.6%
 40kt / 24h       21.8%       13.9%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.4%        9.2%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%