Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220322 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  30.3  32.6  33.2  33.9  36.8  45.4  45.1  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  18.0  15.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  57.4  30.0  10.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  -2.0  48.0  50.0  67.0  90.0  95.0  71.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -11.0 -13.0 -13.0  -9.0 -17.0 -12.0  52.0 VF  F VF VF  F VF  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.6%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        5.2%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        1.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%