Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220322 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  33.4  31.5  36.0  45.0  52.7  54.8  56.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  14.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  62.4  36.5  20.5   9.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  31.0   4.0  65.0  68.0  90.0 113.0 110.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -13.0 -10.0  -7.0 -13.0 -12.0 -13.0   0.0 VF VF  F  F VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        5.6%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%