Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220323 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  40.1  45.8  52.8  61.4  63.7  58.2  68.7 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  78.6  68.5  57.7  36.7  25.9  13.3  23.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  64.0  50.0  72.0  82.0 139.0  74.0  49.0  F  N  N  N  N VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -6.0  32.0  74.0 114.0 VF  F  F  F  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%