Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220324 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.0  57.5  59.5  57.4  49.1  44.0  57.3  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  73.0  66.7  60.9  50.0  55.7  66.7  78.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  70.0 113.0 102.5  88.0  61.0   7.0  22.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  54.0  46.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -21.0 -32.0 -17.5 -10.0  14.0  37.0   2.0 VF VF VF VF  F  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons