Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212022 220324 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.30    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.5  64.5  62.0  51.2  48.8  59.3  62.9  50.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  69.3  65.9  55.0  54.1  67.0  88.0  94.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0 131.0 100.0  54.0 103.0  30.0  -9.0 -10.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -9.0  10.0   1.0  -4.0 -29.0 -13.0  N  N  F  U  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons