Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70     75.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  11.3  13.5  17.9  21.4  37.3  43.4  60.8  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  30.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0 139.0 114.0  97.0 105.0 130.0 148.0  71.0  F VF  F  F  F  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       19.8%       17.9%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       75.2%       68.5%
 30kt / 24h       37.1%       65.3%       51.2%
 35kt / 24h       24.3%       65.3%       44.8%
 40kt / 24h       21.6%       64.4%       43.0%
 45kt / 36h       45.6%       72.6%       59.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.7%       27.3%
 55kt / 48h       43.9%       47.5%       45.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       33.4%       29.1%
 65kt / 72h       45.0%       18.4%       31.7%