Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220324 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.6  18.6  21.3  22.8  32.2  37.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  33.0  15.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  95.1  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  89.0  91.0 107.0 140.0 123.0 116.0  61.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.3%       50.8%       58.0%
 25kt / 24h       82.4%       86.7%       84.5%
 30kt / 24h       72.8%       86.4%       79.6%
 35kt / 24h       66.2%       86.4%       76.3%
 40kt / 24h       64.2%       84.8%       74.5%
 45kt / 36h       64.7%       80.5%       72.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       68.6%       34.3%
 55kt / 48h       45.8%       58.0%       51.9%
 70kt / 48h       23.9%       41.2%       32.6%
 65kt / 72h       20.8%       22.4%       21.6%