Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220324 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  11.4  14.5  17.5  24.6  36.6  44.2  42.7  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  26.0   8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  88.6  78.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  96.0  98.0 122.0 156.0 112.0  46.0  35.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0 -16.0 -35.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.2%       57.4%       60.3%
 25kt / 24h       84.9%       90.4%       87.7%
 30kt / 24h       76.1%       90.4%       83.2%
 35kt / 24h       70.1%       90.4%       80.2%
 40kt / 24h       70.1%       89.2%       79.6%
 45kt / 36h       70.2%       84.0%       77.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       74.6%       37.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.3%       59.6%       53.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       42.2%       33.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.6%       15.7%       16.2%