Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220324 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.4  17.5  19.8  30.6  37.3  39.7  43.6  F  F  F  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  36.0  20.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  87.9  75.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  94.0 124.0 174.0 151.0 108.0  38.0  58.0  N  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0 -14.0 -15.0  -8.0  F  N  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.7%       28.1%       27.9%
 25kt / 24h       64.0%       71.9%       68.0%
 30kt / 24h       46.6%       68.0%       57.3%
 35kt / 24h       42.3%       68.0%       55.2%
 40kt / 24h       42.3%       67.0%       54.7%
 45kt / 36h       45.0%       44.2%       44.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       26.9%       28.2%       27.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%        9.3%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        4.9%        6.1%