Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220324 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     74.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.0  22.0  26.2  38.2  48.9  52.5  52.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  30.0  15.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  60.7  50.5  41.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 128.0 112.0 123.0 156.0  97.0  49.0  16.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  66.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0 -11.0 -12.0 -29.0 -35.0 -26.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.7%       49.7%       63.2%
 25kt / 24h       78.9%       73.0%       76.0%
 30kt / 24h       78.9%       72.9%       75.9%
 35kt / 24h       78.9%       72.9%       75.9%
 40kt / 24h       78.9%       70.7%       74.8%
 45kt / 36h       74.4%       44.0%       59.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.3%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%        7.9%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%