Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220325 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     73.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  18.6  25.7  28.7  33.5  40.7  49.4  51.5  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  41.0  39.0  38.0  26.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  58.6  54.4  48.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 140.0 135.0 124.0 120.0  65.0  11.0  -2.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  60.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0 -11.0 -16.0 -12.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.7%       23.5%       30.6%
 25kt / 24h       54.0%       51.0%       52.5%
 30kt / 24h       33.2%       47.4%       40.3%
 35kt / 24h       31.6%       47.4%       39.5%
 40kt / 24h       31.6%       43.7%       37.6%
 45kt / 36h       48.0%       19.7%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.9%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        3.8%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%