Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220325 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  22.3  27.5  30.8  39.5  45.0  50.0  51.6  F  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  41.0  38.0  33.0  15.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  40.7  32.4  30.5  21.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 136.0 106.0 109.0  74.0  75.0   2.0  -7.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0 -23.0  -9.0 -15.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.5%       28.9%       47.7%
 25kt / 24h       55.6%       42.2%       48.9%
 30kt / 24h       39.2%       36.5%       37.8%
 35kt / 24h       39.2%       36.5%       37.8%
 40kt / 24h       39.2%       33.0%       36.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%