Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220325 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     73.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  25.5  28.5  37.8  40.2  48.2  54.5  53.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  33.0  29.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  39.6  30.7  28.6  13.0  11.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  94.0 114.0 123.0  40.0  27.0   9.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0 -21.0 -24.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  N  F  F VF VF  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.7%       12.8%       30.8%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       16.3%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       10.6%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       10.6%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%