Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220325 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     73.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  31.1  38.3  43.0  51.1  59.8  62.3  64.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  33.0  24.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  49.3  37.9  33.6  35.7  16.2  12.7  16.2  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 122.0 147.0 119.0  50.0  16.0   2.0 -42.0  F  F VF  F  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -16.0 -17.0 -12.0 -13.0 -27.0 -26.0  F  F VF VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        1.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        1.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%