Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220326 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     73.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  36.9  40.1  48.1  49.8  52.4  49.6  44.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  20.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  52.9  48.6  46.5  34.8  29.4  31.2  38.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0  96.0  51.0  45.0   9.0  19.0 -22.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -19.0 -10.0 -16.0 -19.0 -15.0  -8.0 -13.0 VF VF  F VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%