Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220326 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.7  49.1  51.8  61.1  60.3  56.0  56.2  49.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.7  61.5  63.6  51.6  39.3  37.7  44.4  51.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  35.0  -3.0   8.0  20.0   1.0 -11.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  52.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -17.0  -6.0 -12.0  -5.0  -7.0 -16.0 -12.0  F VF  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%