Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220326 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.6  46.7  52.4  56.4  54.3  55.3  49.0  42.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  74.4  64.8  59.4  57.7  61.2  66.6  70.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   9.0  11.0  30.0  12.0  -7.0   1.0  27.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  52.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0  -4.0 -15.0 -29.0 -20.0 -23.0 -15.0  -5.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons