Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220327 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     75.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  46.7  46.7  48.9  36.8  35.2  28.7  29.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.6  64.4  59.3  56.1  53.0  56.1  59.3  64.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  20.0  45.0  52.0  40.0  20.0  21.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -21.0 -14.0 -13.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons