Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220327 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.7  45.4  47.1  50.2  42.6  33.7  31.4  31.6 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6  72.7  71.0  69.3  69.3  71.0  76.2  79.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  22.0 -13.0  22.0   1.0  -8.0   4.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  37.0  32.0  30.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -17.0 -14.0 -25.0  -9.0  -3.0   2.0   7.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons