Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220327 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.7  44.9  40.1  39.8  27.7  29.0  30.6  35.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  79.3  81.0  81.0  88.0  93.5  95.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  30.0  19.0  32.0  17.0  -4.0  19.0  -6.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  37.0  35.0  31.0  33.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons