Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220328 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     80.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  34.0  28.5  29.9  34.2  27.6  32.0  32.4  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  82.7  84.4  86.2  91.6  95.5 101.5 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  16.0  22.0  19.0 -19.0  29.0  13.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  34.0  29.0  29.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   8.0   9.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons