Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220328 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  33.2  33.8  33.2  28.7  34.5  32.6  37.4  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  82.7  84.4  86.2  91.6  95.5  97.4 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   1.0   2.0 -15.0 -20.0  11.0  -8.0 -40.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  35.0  31.0  35.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.0  10.0   3.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons