Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220328 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     82.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  31.3  32.5  30.1  30.3  33.6  35.6  43.1  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  16.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  82.7  86.2  88.0  88.0  88.0  91.6  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -4.0 -15.0 -18.0   7.0 -11.0 -11.0 -43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  38.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  31.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0  11.0   6.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons