Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220329 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     82.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  28.1  28.2  26.7  26.3  22.3  31.4  33.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  86.2  88.0  89.8  89.8  89.8  91.6  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -20.0 -33.0 -13.0  21.0  -1.0 -25.0 -21.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  35.0  34.0  32.0  35.0  38.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons