Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220329 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  26.5  25.6  21.5  25.3  23.7  35.2  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.2  88.0  89.8  89.8  91.6  93.5  95.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -33.0 -13.0  31.0   7.0 -10.0 -28.0  13.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  34.0  34.0  31.0  33.0  37.0  40.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons