Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220329 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.4  26.3  28.9  29.4  41.9  44.5  48.5  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  89.8  89.8  91.6  91.6  91.6  93.5  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   2.0  20.0   3.0   0.0   7.0  18.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  37.0  34.0  35.0  38.0  43.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons