Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220329 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.2  29.0  30.8  32.4  42.4  43.6  43.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.8  89.8  91.6  91.6  93.5  95.5  97.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  14.0  13.0 -12.0  -9.0  -1.0   4.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  30.0  31.0  30.0  35.0  40.0  44.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -7.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons