Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220330 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  28.4  30.3  29.7  37.5  38.4  40.8  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.6  93.5  93.5  95.5  95.5  97.4  99.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  24.0 -23.0 -29.0 -17.0  -9.0 -23.0   2.0  U  U VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  30.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  40.0  45.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons