Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220330 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     82.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.6  29.4  32.1  38.7  38.4  41.8  43.3  U  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.6  91.6  93.5  93.5  95.5  97.4  97.4  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0 -19.0 -29.0  -7.0 -10.0  12.0   5.0  13.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  31.0  33.0  36.0  39.0  45.0  51.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons